Overlooked and over the hill: is China invading Bhutan?

Amid the growing distress in Egypt, the dramatic infighting among the Syrian rebels and the engulfing confusion of the Snowden sweepstakes, including the recent statements by Glenn Greenwald, the British journalist who first published his leaks, claiming that the young spy-turned-whistleblower might make potentially destructive revelations if harmed or captured, world media and international relations commentators are seemingly overlooking what might be China’s latest geopolitical bet and provocative military move.

According to an obscure report on several Indian news outlets, Chinese troops have crossed Bhutan’s borders, openly violating this nation’s sovereignty, and are setting up three military camps inside this tiny Himalayan nation. This still fuzzy incident, if confirmed, would not just be a veiled declaration of war against the Kingdom of Bhutan and grant widespread condemnation, but also severely strain the already complicated Indo-Chinese relations, just months after an alleged Chinese intrusion into Indian territory in Ladakh, and prompt the flaring of yet another focus of conflict in red hot Asia.

Bhutan, known for its traditional Buddhist lifestyle and its official focus on increasing Gross National Happiness instead of raw economic growth – a parameter many believe China should better take into account rather sooner than later, before cracks in social cohesion become explosive –, is also special for being one of the few independent countries in the world that, without openly being a protectorate or overseas territory, has its defense and foreign policy managed by a regional power. Despite the 2007 renegotiation of the terms of the treaty, allowing Bhutan greater autonomy, Thimphu continues to coordinate policy decisions in the area of foreign policy with New Delhi.

Bhutan shares 470 km of border with China, with whom it has disputes over 4500 sq km of land in patches in the Western and Northern parts of the country. The two countries have tried to make progress in the delineation of the borders in near-secret diplomatic talks, starting already in 1972. In 2007, the Bhutanese government published a revised map of the country excluding Kulakangri, its tallest mountain, thus truncating the glacial reserve of the Bhutanese Himalaya. Despite this important concession, there was no official response from China and the border issues were not settled.

Six years later, China still claims up to seven Bhutanese regions, where the strategic interests of the tiny kingdom and its two big neighbors collide. With the Bhutanese parliament being in charge of dealing with these border disputes, this alleged Chinese intrusion might create extra havoc when combined with the unexpected results of Bhutan’s second-ever election, held on July 13, where the opposition People's Democratic Party clearly beat the royalist incumbent Druk Phuensum Tshogpa after an election process shaped by a recent straining of ties with India. When New Delhi cut subsidies on cooking gas and kerosene earlier this month, some reports saw in it a clear message of disapproval of the former government for trying to improve ties with China: now, the People's Democratic Party is expected to build on traditionally strong links with India.

Further from Bhutanese politics, however, this violation of Thimphu’s territorial sovereignty would be a blatant breach of international law by an ever more assertive and aggressive China, whose protracted military conflict with India is far from being resolved. As Brahma Chellaney pointed out recently, China’s revival in 2006 of its long-dormant claim to Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh – almost 3 times the size of Taiwan – was an early sign of Beijing’s swift from an undeniable ‘peaceful rise’ to a more assertive approach. Heightened tension in this vast Himalayan region, crucial for water resources, coupled with rising Chinese influence in traditional Indian satellite Nepal, has also prompted the Indian army to accelerate dormant upgrades of its defenses, including new acquisitions, to further reinforce its renewed focus on the border with China, in what amounts to a dangerous arms race involving the world’s two most populous nations.

Bhutan might be the latest addition to the ever growing list of Chinese aggressive nationalistic moves and geostrategic claims, so far highlighted by the intensifying conflict with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, now further spiced up by Chinese denial of Japanese sovereignty over Okinawa, and the conflict over several island chains and territorial waters with the Philippines, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations, that lead China to stake a claim under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to more than 80% of the South China Sea.

Fueled by an emboldened military, that has seen its budget grow by over 10% yearly for the last decade, and the Communist Party nationalistic response to criticism over slowing economic growth, widening internal imbalances, social discontent and environmental degradation, China is taking a dangerous path of aggression that can only spell growing political isolation in its own backyard and a dangerous arms race in a region that should be the engine of the sputtering world economy. However, as ECFR researcher François Godement recently asserted, Xi Jinping is ignoring his predecessors' approach to foreign policy and pursuing a regional policy based upon China's superior strength.

This aggressively assertive foreign policy, coming on the heels of the low profile advocated by Deng Xiaoping, suggests that the new Chinese leadership might be struggling to grasp the implications of its newfound role of 21st century regional hegemon and global power. Facilitating good political relations and enabling neighboring countries to focus on economic development instead of heightening defense capabilities would probably be in the best interest of China, whose enviable economic record is now facing considerable challenges. Unless China’s leaders revert or notably mollify their current tactics to preserve their domestic legitimacy, Asian stability will be at risk. The world should be looking attentively: Bhutan might be a small remote country, but threats to its gross happiness are also threats to global well-being.