The KPA: An army in disarray?

One more incident involving the North Korean military has added extra confusion to the already obscure developments in the socialist country. China’s official news agency reported on Wednesday that a fighter jet, probably coming from North Korea, had crashed in the northeast of the country. Pictures of the wrecked plane seem to confirm its procedence, and speculation abounds that the pilot was a defector trying to reach Russia, as China has a deal in place with Pyongyang to repatriate all Korean defectors.

At first sight, such incident looks like the result of the individual actions of a disgruntled air force pilot who risked and lost his life to abandon his crumbling nation. However, such a blunt act, coupled with the recent violent actions carried out by the Korean People's Army (KPA), can raise several questions about what might be happening inside the world’s fourth largest army.

One such doubts would be if the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean navy corvette, last March, was orchestrated from above or not. In spite of several conspiracy theories and the vociferous claims of innocence from Pyongyang, it seems clear that a North Korean torpedo shattered the boat, killing 46 sailors. However, it is still unclear who decided the attack should be perpetrated. Assuming that the top brass of the North Korean regime ordered the sinking of the Cheonan, perhaps to bolster their image among the populace, one has to wonder why they haven't been crowing about it in public instead of issuing denials. In fact, the only (unproved) hint at claiming veiled responsibility for the sinking can be found in an (allegedly) recently published propaganda poster depicting a small navy ship being smashed by a North Korean fist (see image and related link).
 

There is a widespread assumption that the mastermind behind the attack was the younger Kim, the mysterious youngster soon to be named successor to the Dear Leader. Such defiant and violent acts are not unheard of in the North Korean hereditary regime: while preparing to succeed his own father, Kim Jong-il orchestrated two bloody attacks against South Korean interests. The first notorious incident was the 1983 Burma Bombing, in which 4 South Korean ministers and 13 top officials were killed when a bomb, aimed at then-South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan, exploded in Rangoo. And later came the 1987 bombing of the Korean Air Flight 858, which killed all 115 on board.

While Kim Jong-un's destructive role makes historical sense, and given the lack of information and knowledge about the real internal situation in the Hermit Kingdom, we can not rule out that the army might be in disarray, uncontrolled and unhappy about its role or the political future of the country. Although prestigious analysts such as A. Lankov sustain that 'he will be an obedient puppet in the hands of the people who lobbied for him', the recent disastrous currency reform, the reported reappearance of widespread hunger and the recent political moves to pave the way for the succession might have rattled some in the military.

China is not amused at this last incident. For an up-and-coming power that craves stability both home and abroad, increased turmoil in its own backyard is not welcome at all. Beijing will probably take this issue very seriously, demanding assurances that the army of the nuclear-armed regime is under control. However, it is also possible that Kim Jong-il, always an extremely shrewd negotiator, takes this opportunity to plead for even more Chinese aid. Paradigmatic experts in negotiating on the edge, the North Koreans might even have orchestrated this chaotic defection attempt --aiming at combining it with another, lesser known bargaining chip they keep up their sleeve--, in order to obtain further concessions in exchange for stability pledges.

Among all this mess of disinformation and theories, we at least know one thing for sure: North Korean minds are so complicated that no theory can be dismissed.